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Goldman says China high-yield developers' default rate understates stresses
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Goldman says China high-yield developers' default rate understates stresses


[Imagen: 2022-03-18t035658z_2_lynxnpei2h04a_rtrop...k=VZG8LNKI]


Chinese high-yield property issuers have by one measure defaulted on nearly a quarter of their outstanding bonds this year, Goldman Sachs analysts estimated, highlighting liquidity stress as Beijing looks to stabilise the battered sector.

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Estimating the year-to-date default rate at 5.5per cent, Kenneth Ho and Chakki Ting said in a note Friday that this headline figure understated stress in a sector where developers have entered into bond exchanges to avoid triggering defaults.

"If we assume all the bonds from issuers that have entered into bond exchange or maturity extension transactions as being in default, the (year-to-date) default rate would rise to 23.4per cent," they said.

Ho and Ting said they maintained a default forecast for the sector of 19per cent for 2022, with a bull case of 10.5per cent and a downside case of 31.6per cent.

"Whilst credit stresses have picked up, China policymakers have also reiterated their accommodative policy stance," they said, adding that "risks are clearly tilted towards the downside case."

Of bonds in the sector that have passed their final maturity dates so far this year, 31per cent have entered into bond exchange or maturity extension transactions, 26per cent have defaulted and 42per cent were fully repaid.
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